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Predictive Equity Sentinel: Real-Time Risk Monitoring
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September 28, 2025 7 min read Client: PE Firm

Predictive Equity Sentinel: Real-Time Risk Monitoring

Finance Private Equity

In private equity, the gap between data and decision is where risk hides. A boutique PE firm approached us to build a monitoring system for their portfolio companies—something faster than quarterly reports and deeper than stock tickers.

Glass Box Analytics

The requirement was strict: no black boxes. The partners needed to trust the AI's recommendations. They needed to see the variables driving the risk score.

We built the Predictive Equity Sentinel, a system that ingests three distinct data streams:

  1. Financials: Real-time integration with portfolio ERPs (NetSuite, Xero).
  2. Market Sentiment: NLP analysis of news and social chatter regarding the sector.
  3. Alternative Data: Satellite imagery for supply chain activity and web traffic volume.

The Outcome: Automated Investment Memos

The Sentinel doesn't just display a dashboard; it drafts investment memos. When a portfolio company breaches a specific volatility threshold (e.g., "Web traffic down 20% while inventory turn slows"), the agent generates a draft memo explaining the anomaly, citing the data sources, and proposing a meeting agenda for the partners.

Agent Output Example:

"ALERT: Company X - Churn Risk Detected.
Signal: Customer Support Ticket Volume +40% WoW.
Correlation: Negative Sentiment on Reddit r/SaaS.
Action: Recommend intervention with Customer Success VP."

This system transformed the firm from reactive monitors to proactive partners. They now address operational issues weeks before they show up on a P&L statement.

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